Sure, there are two games left in the ACC bowl season, but after the gargantuan pile of dung dropped today, it's quite evident that this has become a lost year for the ACC, impressive regular season be damned. To wit: LSU 35, Georgia Tech 3, halftime, in Atlanta, when Paul Johnson's brain was apparently surgically removed and replaced with the fried cerebral cortex of Crackhead Bob. Can one coach's heretofore sterling reputation be shredded in one single game? I say yes, based on what I've seen thus far. George O'Leary and Chan Gailey - heinous warts and all - never blew a game this badly, this early. This is an atomic bomb of a momentum killer for the Jackets.
Sure, Clemson and Virginia Tech may win their bowl games. But in all likelihood, they won't...and even if they win, there's nothing they'll do to counteract this New Year's Eve Catastrophe. No wonder I'm the only independent ACC football blogger; it's tough putting up with this bullshit over and over again.
EDIT - and there will be no previews of tomorrow's Gator and Orange Bowls. I don't give a crap anymore. Happy Damn New Year!
GEORGIA TECH (9-3) vs. LSU (7-5) Wednesday, 12/31/08, 3:30pm ET - Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA Series record: Georgia Tech leads 12-6; the Tigers won the last meeting 28-14 in the 2000 Peach Bowl What may or may not happen: Beats the hell outta me. LSU's defense was clobbered throughout much of the year, but usually via aerial assault. The Jackets' rushing attack is something the Tigers' haven't yet seen, but the Bayou Bengals were much better against the run in 2008 than the pass. Tech was clearly in a groove on offense to end the regular season...but will the 4-week layoff result in some kinks? Will Jordan Jefferson at least not be the turnover pandemic that is/was The Jarrett Lee Experience? Can the Tech front seven contain RB Charles Scott? Was the loss of one of their co-DCs a few weeks ago a distraction or blessing for the Tigers? Too many questions, not enough answers until kickoff. If this game had been played anytime in October or November, the Jackets would win each time. But on Dec. 31 after personnel and coaching changes in Baton Rouge? Who the hell knows. Georgia Tech 24, LSU 22...I guess
Box score says that Calvin Booker is QB for the Jackets...and is highly ineffective. How 'bout a little Josh Nesbitt or Jaybo Shaw? I know they're both a bit banged up but this is a catastrophe-in-the-making and some serious relief is needed. And how is Jonathan Dwyer only rushing for 2.1 yards per carry against an average 1-AA/FCS squad?
2007 Results: 7-6 overall, 4-4 ACC (3rd Coastal Division); lost to Fresno State 40-28 in the Humanitarian Bowl
Offense: To put it mildly, this should be an fascinating unit to watch over the next few seasons. The switch over to Paul Johnson's triple-option-spread is as big of an overhaul as you're likely to see in any other major program for quite awhile. On the plus side, the Jackets appear to have the talent to make it work - eventually. Sophomore QB Josh Nesbitt (53 carries, 339 yards under Chan Gailey's clunky attack) appears to have locked up the position. Tech's always potent stable of running backs will be most helpful in this offense, with sophomore Jonathan Dwyer likely being the feature back (called the "B-back" in Johnson's offense), usually called on to pound the ball up the middle like a fullback. The likes of Calvin Johnson and Kelly Campbell can rest assured that their receiving records are untouchable as long as Johnson reigns in Atlanta. Yes, the Jackets will throw the ball more often than Johnson did at Navy, but not nearly as much as they did under Chan Gailey (and that's probably a good thing - former Tech QBs Reggie Ball and Taylor Bennett completed less than 50% of their passes each of the last four years). Despite all the young talent at QB and RB, the offense won't do much if the young OL doesn't pick up on the new blocking schemes quickly and completely. Four of the first-team linemen have some starting experience, but only one (LT Andrew Gardner) was a full-time starter last year.
Defense: Much like last season, the Jacket defensive line should be a monster, anchored by senior tackles Darryl Richard and Vance Walker. DE Michael Johnson, at 6'7", should bat down approximately 700 passes this season against the generally weak-armed quarterbacks of the ACC. The linebackers and secondary are another matter. 2007's top two LBs in Phillip Wheeler and Gary Guyton are gone, along with much of last year's disappointing secondary. However, the two bright spots in the '07 secondary - Jahi Word-Daniels and Morgan Burnett - are back and will likely be tutoring a lot of freshmen this season. But the biggest concern of all is the loss of Jon Tenuta at defensive coordinator. Johnson brought in Southern Miss LB coach Dave Wommack to take charge of the defense and let's just say I'm not entirely impressed with that move.
Special Teams: Ouch. Gone are Ray Guy Award winner Durant Brooks and 12-year kicker Travis Bell (OK, it just seemed like he was there since about 1995). Sophomore Scott Blair, who handled kickoffs last year, likely will perform all three kicking duties this season. The leading returners are all back, but since most of them are also RBs, you have to wonder if Johnson will install new personnel on returns in order to keep his backs fresh and safe for the offense.
Coaching: The hiring of Paul Johnson from Navy ushers in an era of enthusiasm not seen in Atlanta since the days of Joe Hamilton and perhaps even as far back as the 1990 national title team. I have no doubt that Johnson's offense - which is adaptable according to personnel - can work in the ACC, it's just a matter of when. And when is also the question Jacket fans have on their mind in terms of beating Georgia. Gailey's 0-6 mark against the Dawgs was the single biggest reason for his dismissal, and Johnson's domination of Army and Air Force while at Navy gives Ramblin' Wreck fans hope that Tech can turn the tables on UGA, and soon. However, the loss of uber-DC Jon Tenuta is a tough blow to overcome, and the hiring of Dave Wommack (LB coach at Southern Miss last year, DB/LB coach at South Carolina in 2005-06) as his replacement leaves me skeptical about the continuation of dominant Yellow Jacket defenses. Nonetheless, long term, Paul Johnson might be the best hire in the ACC in years. Short term, it's probably going to be a bumpy ride.
Odds & Ends: With their 17-14 win over Miami last year, Georgia Tech joined Florida State and Virginia Tech as the only schools since 1983 to have beaten the Hurricanes in three consecutive years.....Paul Johnson went 4-7 against ACC schools while at Navy, but all four wins (and one of the losses) were against Duke.....in a backup role last season, RB Jonathan Dwyer averaged a touchdown every nine carries (82 rushes, 9 TDs)
Schedule Analysis: Johnson probably couldn't have picked a less-friendly overall schedule for his inaugural year. Yes, Jacksonville State is a welcome tune-up in the opener, but the Jackets get thrown to the fire almost immediately after that, travelling to Boston College and then Virginia Tech in weeks two and three before returning home to face suddenly resurgent Mississippi State. And then Tech gets a bye week before facing....Duke. Road trips to Clemson, North Carolina and national-title favorite Georgia are the major second-half-of-the-season challenges, along with a renewal of their rivalry with Florida State (the two haven't played since 2003 thanks to expansion). Despite two 1-AA opponents on the slate, this is still the toughest overall schedule in the league this season, due to the brutal opening weeks, unfriendly road contests, and unhelpful placement of bye weeks. Maryland, N.C. State and Wake Forest are absent from this year's slate. Projected Wins: Jacksonville State, Duke, Gardner-Webb Projected Losses: @Boston College, @Virginia Tech, @Clemson, @North Carolina, @Georgia Toss-Ups: Mississippi State, Virginia, Florida State, Miami
GEORGIA TECH (7-5) vs. FRESNO STATE (8-4) - Dec. 31, 2007, 2pm ET (ESPN2) Out of all eight ACC bowl games, this is the one I have the least handle on. I really have no idea how Tech will come out playing for interim coach Jon Tenuta, and I really don't know much about Fresno this season. Nonetheless, the corps of Yellow Jacket RBs should have a field day against a poor Bulldog rush defense.
It's the mindset of the Ramblin' Wreck that makes this one such a mystery. I don't think any result this afternoon would surprise me. Which then brings me back to simple matchups...Georgia Tech is better in basically every significant one, except in the passing game. An inept Taylor Bennett vs. an unimpressive Fresno secondary could mean some big plays either way, cringe-inducing exhibits of incompetence, or a smattering of both.
Great hire, assuming Admiral Johnson doesn't pull a Grobe and "sleep on it". The guy has a killer offensive mind and wins everywhere he goes. Being able to clear the academic hurdles at Navy and still make it to five straight bowl games makes his move to Georgia Tech a steal for the Yellow Jackets. Sure, he's not a smooth, polished, plaster-his-mug-everywhere Urban Meyer/Nick Saban/Pete Carroll prototype. He's more of the Mark Mangino/Ralph Friedgen variety - a bit surly, and not exactly a physical specimen that you want prominently portrayed on billboards all over town (although he's Chippendale material compared to Mangino and Fridge). But a winner he most certainly is.
No, not of the Nicks/Buckingham/McVie variety (although their alleged escapades back in the day are far more intriguing than what I'm about to report). The rumo(u)rs I'm alluding to concern the head coaching vacancies at Georgia Tech and Duke...
Georgia Tech The top names appear to be David Cutcliffe, Rick Neuheisel, Chris Hatcher, Paul Johnson and Will Muschamp. According to the Atlanta-Journal Constitution, both Georgia Southern and Navy claim that they haven't been contacted regarding Messrs. Hatcher and Johnson. While both Hatcher and Johnson lack some sizzle and "big splash" credentials that many think Tech needs, both are going to have superb careers at whatever BCS school takes a chance on them. They're that good.
Cutcliffe and Neuheisel are retreads...and that's not necessarily a bad thing, but both gents won't come cheap, and I don't see either staying in Atlanta long after he knocks off the Bulldogs and takes the Jackets to the ACC title game.
Will Muschamp is a hot name in the coaching carousel this year. He's done a great job with Auburn's defense, but there are two issues that may be a problem: 1) He's a Georgia grad, and 2) Tech already has a superb defensive coordinator in Jon Tenuta. There's no way Tenuta stays if Muschamp gets the job.
Duke I have yet to see any solid information regarding their search, and we may never know who the Devils are talking to until the new hire is announced (private schools are able to keep these things annoyingly under wraps, since the state isn't footing any bills for searches and salaries and such). The best I can gather is that Steve Logan and Skip Holtz are the names most often mentioned. What I can just about guarantee you is that it won't be anyone (except maybe Logan) from this deluded list.
For the latest updates and news in the Blue Devils search, ACC Now is probably your best bet.
If anyone out there has a tip, halfway-substantiated rumor, or wants to squash any of the names addressed here, feel free to drop a comment.
Early rumors for the Tech job: interim head coach and DC Jon Tenuta, Florida State offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher (Tech AD Dan Radakovich was associate AD at LSU when Fisher was OC there and is said to be very high on Jimbo), Navy coach Paul Johnson (who won a 1-AA championship down the road at Georgia Southern), and perhaps the most interesting name, the newly unemployed Houston Nutt. I think Johnson would be a phenomenal choice...he's an offensive genius, he knows the state of Georgia, and he turned Navy into a perennial bowl team despite the incredible academic hurdles at Annapolis. But I must admit that it would fun to have the Nutt-house in the ACC.
Early rumors for the Duke job: Ummmm, yeah.....no rumors yet, thanks. Let's give it a few days.
BOSTON COLLEGE 38 - WAKE FOREST 28 It certainly appears that Jeff Jagodzinski knows what he's doing, and that any apparent college-game rust has an effective cure-all called Matt Ryan. Let the Phillip Rivers comparisons begin (and the ABC guys calling the game wasted no opportunity in doing so), but for the Eagles' sake, let's hope Ryan can have a bit more overall success in the W-L department.
Wake, meanwhile, acquitted themselves nicely, churning out some decent offensive production if we ignore the fact that running the football is a part of most team's gameplans. In a league that is so incredibly quarterback deficient, it's amazing that the Demon Deacons can just plug in anyone on short notice and have him smoothly and cleanly throw the ball around (see: Skinner, Riley; and now Hodges, Justin).
GEORGIA TECH 33 - NOTRE DAME 3 The Pride of the ACC so far, the Yellow Jackets dropped the hammer on the Domers despite a somewhat clunky passing game (11 of 23, 121 yards) from UFC wannabe Taylor Bennett. All that is needed for the Jackets to win the league is for the running game - led by Tashard Choice and the powerful OL - to grind out 175+ yards per game, have Bennett dink-and-dunk and chuck it for 200 yards per contest, and make sure that Jon Tenuta's defense continues to screw with the minds of all those mediocre ACC QBs ("Matty Ice" Ryan aside). Just don't let The Chan get in the way.
MIAMI 31 - MARSHALL 3 You know big-time Hurricane football is back when the Orange Bowl is proudly half-full for a game against a non-Florida State, Virginia Tech, or Florida squad. 39,000+ saw Miami quietly control the game, scoring one touchdown per quarter and picking off Marshall QBs four times. Sure, Kirby Freeman was unimpressive (9 of 21, 86 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), and he'll probably get abused like a fresh inmate at Oz next Saturday at Oklahoma, but for one week Miami football looks to be back on track.
CLEMSON 24 - FLORIDA STATE 18 Meh. I've rarely seen such a bipolar game as this one, and since the manic/happy side was delivered by FSU in the 2nd half, you can't help but leave this game thinking that the Noles - while still appearing to be a year or two away from prominence - will have a more encouraging future. Like many seasons prior, Clemson started this game HOT HOT HOT and then just sorta deflated in the third and fourth quarters, much like they've done over the second half of many a season under Tommy Bowden.
And for God's sake Tiger fans...act like you've been there before. Charging the field after hanging on against a #19 Florida State squad is almost as pathetic as the Noles' "offensive line" in the first half. FSU hasn't been rushing-the-field-worthy since about 2003.
Georgia Tech QB Taylor Bennett's reputation skyrocketed in the hearts and minds of many last week when he roughed up starting DE Darrell Robertson during a scrimmage. The altercation between the two then resulted in a skirmish among several players.
Robertson had to be helped off the field by trainers. God help the opposing DB who tries to return a pick on Opie - excuse me, Mr. Bennett - this season.
The last thing you see before his fist crashes through your skull
2006 Results: 9-5 overall, 7-2 ACC (1st Coastal Division); lost to West Virginia 38-35 in the Gator Bowl
Offense: Four-year starting QB Reggie Ball has ridden off into the sunset (huzzah!), taking Wideout-of-the-Decade, but criminally under-utilized, Calvin Johnson with him (not huzzah!). Taking over for Ball is Mayberry's very own Opie Taylor Bennett, who in his one start last season in the Gator Bowl displayed staggering competence not seen in Atlanta lo' these many years. Last year's ACC rushing champ Tashard Choice returns in the backfield. The departure of Calvin the Consummate has left the WR unit mighty thin, with James Johnson (no relation, I think) the only returnee with solid game experience. That said, receiver is the easiest - or more aptly, least difficult - skill position to replace and there's certainly talent there for the Jackets, just most of it a very dark shade of green. Four starters return on the offensive line, so look for Choice and the OL to take the reins early in the season while Opie and his receivers develop a rhythm.
Defense: One word: Loaded. One more word: Deep. Eight starters are back, anchored by the powerhouse defensive line. Leading tackler from '06 LB KaMichael Hall and All-ACC DT Joe Anoai have departed, but most of the remnants of last year's solid unit (the Clemson and West Virginia fiascos notwithstanding) are back for blood. Most of the second-teamers on the depth chart have seen significant playing time. Look for this defense to rival Virginia Tech's for tops in the ACC.
Special teams: The nation's best punter in Durant Brooks is back, eager to pin opposing offenses inside the 10-yard line so that his pals on defense can unleash bloody, murderous hell. Hot-and-cold (latest reading: hot) kicker Travis Bell is back for his final season, and the return game is in the excellent hands of sophomores Jamaal Evans and Tyler Evans (no relation, I think).
Coaching: Out- Patrick Nix, the much-maligned offensive coordinator during the Reggie Reign of Error, inexplicably hired by Coastal Division rival Miami; In- John Bond, most recently the OC at Northern Illinois, where his units finished 3rd, 2nd and 2nd in the MAC during his three seasons in DeKalb. Replacing Nix with my 8th grade math teacher (deceased) would likely have been been an upgrade, considering that Nix - armed with Calvin Johnson, Tashard Choice, and a veteran offensive line - found his offense held to 12 points or less in five games last year (the most grotesque display of ineptitude being a sordid 7-0 affair with North Carolina). Newcomer Bond may lack sizzle, but he brings solid credentials and more than 20 years of coaching experience. The rest of the coaching staff returns intact, most notably Chain Gailey as the head honcho, and the oft-praised Jon Tenuta as defensive coordinator.
For What It's Worth: Georgia Tech's national ranking in total offense in the Nix years, 2004-2006: #80, #80, #67; and that was with Calvin Johnson in the lineup each of those seasons....the overblown Chan Gailey Equilibrium was nearly put to rest last season, as the Jackets won 9 games, but still lost 5.....the Ramblin Wreck has finished .500 or above in league play for 12 straight seasons; next closest is Clemson with 8 straight....Tech's Top 20 recruiting class this winter was by far the best of the Gailey Era
Schedule Analysis: Very manageable - no Florida State or Wake Forest, and aside from a bit of a mess in late September-early October (@Virginia, Clemson, @Maryland, @Miami), all the toughies are nicely spaced apart. Notre Dame in week one and Boston College in week three are separated by a glorified-scrimmage with Samford; the Jackets get a bye week before Virginia Tech comes calling, then visit Duke the next week; and they get a home date with UNC before Georgia travels to Bobby Dodd. As I said, a very manageable slate, which leads to the somewhat surprising projections below... Projected Wins- @Notre Dame, Samford, Boston College, @Virginia, @Maryland, Army, @Duke, North Carolina Projected Losses- none Toss-Ups- Clemson, @Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia
Before nearly dropping dead today of heat exhaustion while mowing my lawn with the lamest mower in the history of grass (advisory: do not ever buy this piece of suck), I was thinking of how disappointing the 2006 ACC Championship Game was, and what little interest and buzz there was surrounding it.
My quickly melting brain then pondered....What would be the equivalent matchup in an SEC or Big 12 title game? A historical doormat vs. a traditionally good - but not consistently great - program? I thought of a few, but some of those still don't seem to equate, for two reasons: 1) while Wake Forest has been a traditional doormat, they've at least had a competitive pulse for much of the last 10 years, and there's another complete and total patsy in the conference (that would be Duke); 2) while Georgia Tech has an excellent football tradition, and has won a national title more recently than Auburn, Georgia, Penn State, and Notre Dame, they simply don't have the sex appeal, national following - and most importantly, rabid alumni base - that those powers have.
So, rather than let that thought melt away in the 97-degree Florida summer heat, I figured I'd still try to posit a few somewhat reasonable comparisons....mainly because I need to see this thought all the way through, and I really need to start posting more entries in this here blog.
SEC Equivalents Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Kentucky vs. Arkansas
Georgia Tech really has no equivalent in the SEC East...Florida, Georgia and Tennessee have much larger followings and have been better programs over the last few decades. South Carolina has a better statewide following but comically less tradition, and Kentucky and Vanderbilt are, well, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. They have two general equivalents in the SEC West in Arkansas and Ole Miss, although it's fair to say that the Jackets have been better over the last decade or so than the Hogs or Rebels. Tech is not equivalent to Alabama, Auburn or LSU for obvious reasons, and is obviously better and more highly regarded than Mississippi State.
Wake Forest has two general equivalents in the SEC East in Vandy and Kentucky, although Kentucky has about eight times the enrollment and exponentially more alumni and following than the Deacs. Wake has one real equivalent in the the SEC West in Mississippi State, but again lacks the local appeal, but not necessarily the national appeal, of the Cowbell Nation.
Big 12 Equivalents Baylor vs. Colorado Baylor vs. Kansas State Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Big 12 North equivalent to Wake: Iowa State, purely based on winning percentage, certainly not local following. Big 12 South equivalent to Wake: Baylor...although Wake has been much, much better on the field the last several years, the type of school is as close to Wake as any other in any major conference.
Big 12 North equivalent to GT: Kansas State and Colorado (the Jackets' co-national champ in '90), and that's based only on the last 15-20 years. Nebraska has clearly been stronger historically, while Iowa State, Kansas and Missouri have been worse and less regarded than the Ramblin' Wreck. Big 12 South equivalent to GT: Texas A&M....again, not perfect, but close. A&M is still a bigger name nationally, but the Jackets have been better recently and have a similarly regarded history. Oklahoma and Texas are obviously better, while Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Baylor are worse to varying degrees.
Ehhhhhh. Maybe this wasn't such a great topic after all. Wake is too small a school in comparison to, well, nearly all 119 1-A programs, and Tech, while winning the national title in 1990, has been stuck in just-barely-sub-Top 25, Dec. 28-ish bowl status for the entire Dubya Bush administration.
That said, bashing the 2006 ACC Championship Game is perfectly fair, especially when you consider how poor a game it turned out to be. I'd sure as hell eviscerate a 9-6 snoozer between Kansas State and Baylor in a half-empty stadium in St. Louis, wouldn't you?
GATOR BOWL - Jan. 1, 2007 - Alltell Stadium, Jacksonville, FL Georgia Tech (9-4) vs. West Virginia (10-2) With Calvin Johnson's biggest obstacle gone (that would be Jackets' QB Reggie Ball), do we finally get to see that monster performance we've all be waiting for? Probably not. But, make no mistake, Johnson and Georgia Tech's chances of winning this game increased greatly a week and a half ago when it was announced that Ball was academically ineligible to play. On top of that, the Mountaineers' Steve Slaton is expected to be very limited in the game due to a bruised thigh. Let's just say that the stars are aligning for Tech in a big way on this New Year's Day.
In this game, despite all the distractions, the team that is better prepared by their coaching staff will win this one. West Virginia is making their 3rd trip to this bowl in 5 years, while the Yellow Jackets are making their 2nd trip to Jacksonville in a month. Neither team has won here in any of those previously mentioned appearances. The Mountaineers went through a roller coaster of emotions a few weeks ago when coach Rich Rodriguez was thisclose to leaving for Alabama, only to pull back at the last minute. Aside from the Ball situation, Tech also lost DB Kenny Scott to grades as well. It has not been a relaxing month in either Atlanta or Morgantown.
Look for this game to be tight, a bit sloppy at first, and to come down to the final minutes. Despite all the distractions, Rich Rod will have his boys just a tad bit better prepared.
The rest of the weekend's outlook shall appear tomorrow, but the weekly ACC Thursday Night contest again forces me into a premature preview, so without further ado....
Virginia at Georgia Tech, 7:30pm ET Al, Chan, disappoint Each with unfulfilled promise But Groh hits bottom (The Pick: Georgia Tech 27, Virginia 10)
