Cataclysm Averted

Virginia Tech 20, Cincinnati 7

It certainly wasn't a thing of beauty, but it'll do...a 4-6 record in the bowl season, albeit very disappointing, looks light years better than 3-7. And the God-forsaken 1-9 thing in BCS games since it's inception is now a sterling 2-9. And in an interesting bit o' trivia, the two wins were over the two programs that payed in Miami last night; lest you forget, the first win was the Florida State victory over the-then Big East Hokies in that classic Sugar Bowl national title game in January 2000.

Thanks Hokies!

So things are not going very well...

3-4 so far in the bowls, with 3-7 looking far more likely than 6-4. A few thoughts...

--Wake 29, Navy 19 was what should've happened the first time in September, not in Deacs-Middies Redux. Nonetheless, a solid but less-than-sexy win over a not-to-be underestimated opponent (as Wake and Rutgers will attest to)

--West Virginia 31, UNC 30 is what started this little avalanche, I'm afraid. It was one of those evenly matched games that tends to tilt the whole conference's showing...what with Pat White having the game of his life and the Mountaineers still only winning by a point, you just kinda had that feeling that the breaks were not going to fall our way.

--FSU 42, Wisconsin 13 was entirely predictable to anyone not closely attached to the Seminole program (as those of us close to FSU are in a constant state of accepted-nihilism these days). First, it was sleek, southern football vs. grain-fed slow as curds flowing uphill mediocre Big Ten football. Second, FSU played like ass for the first half (as I thought they would) and still clunked it's way to a four-TD win (which I did not think would happen). So far, this is the shining beacon of the ACC bowl season. If that's still the case on Jan. 2, we gots problems.

--Cal 24, Miami 17 was fairly respectable, what with the Pac Ten's #4 team, basically playing at home, struggling vs. the ACC's 7th rated team that apparently had no idea that there's this kooky thing known as a "clock" in this sport. Still...close game, ACC loss. A pattern has now developed.

--Rutgers 29, NC State 23 was entirely predictable the moment Pack QB Russell Wilson was pulled due to injury, despite a 17-6 State halftime lead. Friggin Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Matt Stafford, Graham Harrell, John Parker Wilson, Chase Daniel, etc seemingly haven't missed a down all year to injury...God forbid an ACC QB goes through a season without several major organs and appendages obliterated. Oh yeah - close game, ACC loss. P-to-the-A-to-the-TTERN.

--Maryland 42, Nevada 35 was entertaining and proved that the Fridge has one or two decent motivational tactics that he hasn't sold to Under Armor yet. The Terps led 28-13 at the half and 42-28 late so it wasn't exactly a nailbiter. A win is a win, but 42-21 would've been a little more impressive, no?

--Vanderbilt 16, BC 14 is something I should've picked automatically for five reasons: 1) Dominique Davis; 2) Dominique Davis; 3) Dominique Davis; 4) The Eagle D is a shell of itself after letting a lame VT offense crush them in the ACC title game; 5) the opponent was Vandy, in Nashville, in their first bowl since '82. And it was a close game, which apparently equates to loserville in ACC Bowl-land. And some of the calls in the game were of the "investigate officiating crew for possible wagering on the Commodores +3.5pts" variety. Still, in all the Vandy-love after this win, think anyone will mention they lost to Wake and Duke in the regular season? Hellz no.

I am not looking forward to tonight's Chick-fil-A home of yummy chicken strips and radioactive-yellow honey mustard Bowl. The Gator and Orange Bowls point toward destruction as well. Dammit.

Chick-fil-A Home of the 3 Mile Long Drive-Thru at Lunchtime Bowl Preview

GEORGIA TECH (9-3) vs. LSU (7-5)
Wednesday, 12/31/08, 3:30pm ET - Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
Series record: Georgia Tech leads 12-6; the Tigers won the last meeting 28-14 in the 2000 Peach Bowl
What may or may not happen: Beats the hell outta me. LSU's defense was clobbered throughout much of the year, but usually via aerial assault. The Jackets' rushing attack is something the Tigers' haven't yet seen, but the Bayou Bengals were much better against the run in 2008 than the pass. Tech was clearly in a groove on offense to end the regular season...but will the 4-week layoff result in some kinks? Will Jordan Jefferson at least not be the turnover pandemic that is/was The Jarrett Lee Experience? Can the Tech front seven contain RB Charles Scott? Was the loss of one of their co-DCs a few weeks ago a distraction or blessing for the Tigers? Too many questions, not enough answers until kickoff. If this game had been played anytime in October or November, the Jackets would win each time. But on Dec. 31 after personnel and coaching changes in Baton Rouge? Who the hell knows. Georgia Tech 24, LSU 22...I guess

Music City Dear God This Is A Game the ACC Must Not Lose Bowl Preview

BOSTON COLLEGE (9-4) vs. VANDERBILT (6-6)
Wednesday, 12/31/08, 3:30pm ET - LP Field, Nashville, TN
Series record: Boston College leads 2-0; the Eagles won the last meeting 19-6 in 1963
What may or may not happen: This is really all you need to know - Boston College ranks sixth nationally in total defense; the Commodores rank 118th in the nation in total offense. For the Eagles to lose, they would need to turn the ball over 5+ times, Vandy would have to play a clean offensive game, and special teams would have to totally and completely go the 'Dores way. It's not impossible, and you never know what a team's mindset will be after four weeks off and not being thrilled with their bowl destination. The Eagles dropped all the way to the ACC's 5th bowl slot after getting drilled by Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game (a game in which BC QB Dominique Davis was a special kind of horrid - here's hoping that performance was an awful fluke); Vandy dropped six of their last seven games, yet still earned the first bowl bid since 1982 - and it's 4 miles from their campus. Still, it can't be ignored that this is a defacto home game for the Commodores. Boston College 24, Vanderbilt 10

Humanitarian Would Be To Cancel This Dead In the Water Bowl Preview

MARYLAND (7-5) vs. NEVADA (7-5)
Tuesday, 12/30/08, 4:30pm ET - Bronco Stadium, Boise, ID
Series record: first meeting
What may or may not happen: I'm as disinterested in this game as the Terps apparently are. It's basically a rule of mine to pick against a team that is unhappy to be in it's bowl game unless said team is head and shoulders above it's opponent. And Maryland, losers to Middle Tennessee this year and to Virginia by a 31-0 score, are most certainly not head and shoulders above the Nevada Wolf Pack. Add that to the fact that the 7-5 (not 10-2 or 9-3, mind you) Terps have an inexplicable chip on their shoulder regarding how good they really are, and you have the makings of a bad, bad afternoon in Boise. If Maryland gets down early, I fully expect them to fold up shop and quit. If things go well for the Turtles early in the game, I think the motivation switch gets flipped on rather quickly. That said, I think Nevada takes control from the get-go. But I've been wrong more often than not in my bowl picks so far, and for the ACC's sake I hope I'm mistaken here as well. Nevada 28, Maryland 17

PapaJohns.com Home of Declining Quality Pizza Since 1984 Bowl Preview

N.C. STATE (6-6) vs. RUTGERS (7-5)
Monday, 12/29/08, 3pm ET - Legion Field, Birmingham, AL
Series record: first meeting
What may or may not happen: Both teams were red hot to end the season; Rutgers won their final six games capped off by a 63-14 murder of Louisville, while NC State won their final four contests highlighted by curbstompings of North Carolina and Miami in back-to-back weeks to close out the season. With a four week layoff, it will be tough for one (if not both) teams to get their groove back. In that case go with the bowl-master Tom O'Brien, who's won his last six postseason matchups. N.C. State 30, Rutgers 23

Lest we get carried away by early bowl performances...

...here's a quick guide into the actual matchups in the ACC's bowl games this season:

ADVANTAGE ACC
Champs Sports Bowl - Florida State (8-4, ACC #4 of 12) vs. Wisconsin (7-5, Big Ten #6 of 11)
Music City Bowl - Boston College (9-4, ACC #3 of 12) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6, SEC #6 of 12)
Chick-fil-A Bowl - Georgia Tech (9-3, ACC #2 of 12) vs. LSU (7-5, SEC #7 of 12)

DISADVANTAGE ACC
Emerald Bowl - Miami (7-5, ACC #7 of 12) vs. California (8-4, Pac 10 #4 of 10)
PapaJohns.com Bowl - NC State (6-6, ACC #10 of 12) vs. Rutgers (7-5, Big East #4 of 8)
Gator Bowl - Clemson (7-5, ACC #9 of 12) vs. Nebraska (8-4, Big XII #6 of 12)

RELATIVELY EVEN
EagleBank Bowl - Wake Forest (7-5, ACC #8 of 12) vs. Navy (8-4, Independent); Navy won the regular season meeting
Meineke Car Care Bowl - North Carolina (8-4, ACC #5 of 12) vs. West Virginia (8-4, Big East #3 of 8)
Humanitarian Bowl - Maryland (7-5, ACC #6 of 12) vs. Nevada (7-5, WAC #3 of 9)
Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech (9-4, ACC #1 of 12) vs. Cincinnati (11-2, Big East #1 of 8)

So the ACC should go 3-3 with 4 other question marks based strictly on matchups. If the "even" matchups all break the ACC's way (and they haven't as we've already seen), the league should go 7-3 in bowls. If the "even" matchups all go to hell (and they haven't as we've already seen), the ACC is looking at 3-7. So there's your window: 7-3 and above means a rousing success, 3-7 or worse means disaster. 4-6 is disappointing but not necessarily cause for panic. 6-4 or 5-5 is OK but not something to plaster all over the 2009 media guide. Naturally, one of the "Advantage ACC" games could very well result in an upset, just as one of the "Disadvantage ACC" contests could surprise. But it all comes back to the matchups as a whole. 7-3 is the mark to hit for glory and honor and all that crap.

Emerald Nuts, Almonds, Cashews, Other Salty Confections and Delicious Yogurt Covered Raisins Bowl Preview

MIAMI (7-5) vs. CALIFORNIA (8-4)
Saturday, 12/27/08, 8pm ET - AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA
Series record: Miami leads 2-1; the Hurricanes won the last meeting 52-24 in 1990
What may or may not happen: With the Canes admirably suspending kids left and right - including starting and soon-to-transferring QB Robert Marve - it seems as if they're treating this game as preseason 2009. Which is all fine and good, but traveling 3000 miles to play what amounts to a road game - just to get your perpetually young team reps while getting your ass handed to you - seems to be a poor use of university cash in these trying economic times. While the Canes' offensive woes this year have been well-chronicled, keep in mind that the Miami defense got slapped around in their last two games by Georgia Tech and NC State. Think Cal might be able to move the ball a bit? One thing's for sure, if Miami pulls this one off, Kirk Herbstreit will have them winning the national title next year and Hurricane season ticket orders will double to 58. California 37, Miami 17

Champs Sports Grossly Overpriced Sweatshop Produced Apparel and Footwear Bowl Preview

FLORIDA STATE (8-4) vs. WISCONSIN (7-5)
Saturday, 12/27/08, 4:30pm ET - Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
Series record: First meeting
What may or may not happen: I'm getting a weird vibe about this one. It's a clash of different styles of play, different cultures, and most profoundly a clash of generations. On paper and in your head, you would think the Noles would roll in this matchup. But I've got a bad feeling that despite being largely held in check, PJ Hill and whoever the Badgers' QB is will tear off a few big runs and inexplicably find some success in the passing game, while the FSU offense will turn the ball over at the most inopportune times. Nonetheless, the Seminoles' MVP this season - Groza winner Graham Gano - will end his career in style by kicking the game-winning field goal, allowing FSU to escape in a nailbiter. Florida State 23, Wisconsin 21

Meineke Car Care Express Lube Window Tinting Callahan Brake Pads Bowl Preview

NORTH CAROLINA (8-4) vs. WEST VIRGINIA (8-4)
Saturday, 12/27/08, 1pm ET - Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Series record: North Carolina leads 1-0; the Tar Heels won the only previous meeting 20-13 in the 1997 Gator Bowl
What may or may not happen: West Virginia seems to be everybody's pick in this game, largely based on the assumption Pat White's stellar career should have a somewhat happy ending. That was also why many folks picked the Mountaineers to knock off Pitt a few weeks ago and we saw how that actually turned out. If you want a real reason as to why WVU should win this game, just take a look at the Tar Heel defense - they were ripped to shreds by NC State and Duke in the final two weeks of November. The Mountaineer defense also appears to have a slight advantage over UNC's attack, as injuries finally took their toll on the Heels late in the season. But then there's Bill Stewart vs. Butch Davis which tips the scales back into the Carolina camp, so....North Carolina 19, West Virginia 17

Holy crap, there's a bowl game today...

That also means it's 5 days til Christmas. I should probably start shopping. Anyhoo...

EagleBank Bowl
WAKE FOREST (7-5) vs. NAVY (8-4)
Saturday, 12/20/08, 11am ET - RFK Stadium (I thought they tore this down?), Washington DC
Series record: Wake Forest leads 6-3; Navy won September's meeting 24-17
What may or may not happen: While Wake has had a somewhat disappointing year (given their stellar 2006 an 2007 seasons), they can atone for this year's biggest blunder by gaining a measure of revenge against the Middies. Navy gouged the Deacs for nearly 300 yards on the ground in September while attempting all of 4 passes. Riley Skinner had possibly the worst game of his career, throwing 4 picks. In short, Wake did nothing right that day and still only lost by a touchdown. With two weeks to prepare for a very one-dimensional attack that they've already seen firsthand, the Deacons should be well prepared the stop the Naval assault. Future Sunday stars Aaron Curry and Alphonso Smith will not let their Wake careers end with a second loss to Navy in a single year. Wake Forest 27, Navy 17

ACC Bowl Bids

Just released...

ORANGE BOWL (Miami - 1/1/09)
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL (Atlanta - 12/31/08)
Georgia Tech vs. LSU

GATOR BOWL (Jacksonville - 1/1/09)
Clemson vs. Nebraska

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL (Orlando - 12/27/08)
Florida State vs. Wisconsin

MUSIC CITY (Nashville - 12/31/08)
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL (Charlotte - 12/27/08)
North Carolina vs. West Virginia

EMERALD BOWL (San Francisco - 12/27/08)
Miami vs. California

HUMANITARIAN BOWL (Boise - 12/30/08)
Maryland vs. Nevada

EAGLEBANK BOWL (Washington - 12/20/08)
Wake Forest vs. Navy

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL (Birmingham - 12/30/08)
N.C. State vs. Rutgers

A Very Quick Orange Bowl Preview

VIRGINIA TECH (11-2) vs. KANSAS (11-1) - Jan. 3, 2008, 8pm ET (FOX)
Does the 2007 season have another shocker in store? After the Thursday Night stunner to Boston College in late October, the Hokies kicked things into another gear and rolled over the remainder of their schedule, including a rematch with BC in the ACC Championship Game. But after a month off, can Tech maintain their momentum, or will they come out clunkier than a 1987 Hyundai, much as they did in their first two games of the season against East Carolina and LSU?

With LB Vince Hall now likely out of the game due to an inexplicable injury in pregame bowl activities (something involving a jet-ski, apparently), and with Brandon Ore suspended for the first quarter, it will be up to QB Sean Glennon and the defense to set the tone early. The Jayhawks haven't been on this stage before, so it will be interesting to see if they come out and bellyflop like Hawaii and Illinois two days ago, or play like they're en fuego like West Virginia in the '06 Sugar Bowl and Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl last year.

This one is all on the coaching staffs. The Hokies are clearly more talented. Frank Beamer needs to have his troops watch last night's Fiesta Bowl on a 24-hour loop to show what can happen to teams that take their opponent lightly. Mark Mangino needs to throw in some wrinkles into his offensive scheme in order to catch the Hokie defense off guard, and he needs to throw the kitchen sink at Glennon and the underwhelming Tech OL, even if they get burned a few times.

The Hokies' track record in big games, particularly as favorites, is rather poor. They'll win, but in agonizingly close fashion.

Virginia Tech 28, Kansas 24

A Very Quick Gator Bowl Preview

VIRGINIA (9-3) vs. TEXAS TECH (8-4) - Jan. 1, 2008, 1pm ET (CBS)
As you've undoubtedly read by now, the Red Raider offense is by far the most powerful the Cavaliers have faced this season...by a mile. Literally. Texas Tech gained 1,819 more yards this season than the most prolific offense the Hoos faced all year, Georgia Tech. Ponder that for a minute.

On the positive side for Virginia, Mike Leach's crew only faced one team this season that ranked in the Top 50 in total defense (Oklahoma). And, that victory over the Sooners 43 days ago was the last game the Raiders played. Tech was also stymied by a less-than-stellar Mizzou defense in October, a game in which the Tiger pass rush disrupted Red Raider QB Graham Harrell's timing and rhythm. The Cavs have a defensive line that can do much the same.

Unfortunately, UVA does not have an offense that can mount any semblance of a comeback should Tech get a comfortable lead. In summary, too much has to go wrong for the Raiders to lose this one, and too much right has to go for right Virginia to win it. A bad bowl season for the ACC looks to get a little worse, I fear.

Texas Tech 31, Virginia 23

A Very Quick Chick-fil-A Bowl Preview

CLEMSON (9-3) vs. AUBURN (8-4) - Dec. 31, 2007, 7:30pm ET (ESPN)
Clemson's three losses this season were - probably not coincidentally - to the three best defenses they faced...Virginia Tech (#5 nationally), Georgia Tech (#12), and Boston College (#23). Auburn's defense is rated #8. What you probably didn't know is that Clemson's defense is rated 6th nationally, and going up against Auburn's 96th rated offensive unit...and one that is breaking in new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, who just one month ago was Troy's OC.

Given all of that, on paper, this looks to be a solid Clemson win. But for whatever reason, I have an uneasy feeling about this one. Stats be damned...

Auburn 20, Clemson 19

A Very Quick Music City Bowl Preview

FLORIDA STATE (7-5) vs. KENTUCKY (7-5) - Dec. 31, 2007, 4:30pm ET (ESPN)
In short, it will be a moral victory if the Seminoles can keep Kentucky under 40 and keep the margin of victory within 20. After two dozen suspensions stemming from a cheating scandal in an online course, on top of another dozen players lost to injury, the Seminoles enter this afternoon's matchup perilously thin...but with no pressure. No one expects them to be very competitive, much less win. Kentucky is shouldered with all the pressure to not just win, but to do so with decided ease.

The Seminoles' two-deep depth chart for the game is comical. Of the 47 spots listed, only 40 different players fill them. I'm a Seminole alum and follow the team closely, and I don't recognize several names on the chart. Thankfully for the Noles, their top four offensive playmakers will be present as well as most of their top defensive talent. Even without the legion of missing players, the offensive lines and the secondary were weak points for FSU. Now, they are impending disasters.

Look for the Noles to play out of their minds for most of the first half. Then watch for fatigue to settle in just before halftime, and for the inevitable unravelling in the second half. The 'Cats will put on the brakes midway through the 4th quarter in a show of mercy.

Kentucky 41, Florida State 17

A Very Quick Humanitarian Bowl Preview

GEORGIA TECH (7-5) vs. FRESNO STATE (8-4) - Dec. 31, 2007, 2pm ET (ESPN2)
Out of all eight ACC bowl games, this is the one I have the least handle on. I really have no idea how Tech will come out playing for interim coach Jon Tenuta, and I really don't know much about Fresno this season. Nonetheless, the corps of Yellow Jacket RBs should have a field day against a poor Bulldog rush defense.

It's the mindset of the Ramblin' Wreck that makes this one such a mystery. I don't think any result this afternoon would surprise me. Which then brings me back to simple matchups...Georgia Tech is better in basically every significant one, except in the passing game. An inept Taylor Bennett vs. an unimpressive Fresno secondary could mean some big plays either way, cringe-inducing exhibits of incompetence, or a smattering of both.

Georgia Tech 23, Fresno State 17

A Very Quick Meineke Bowl Preview

WAKE FOREST (8-4) vs. CONNECTICUT (9-3) - Dec. 29, 2007, 1pm ET (ESPN)
With a win this afternoon, the Demon Deacons will become one of just 12 1-A teams to win 20 games over the last two seasons. The "Weak Forest" moniker can now officially be tossed aside. While this afternoon's matchup in Charlotte certainly doesn't have the pizzazz of last year's Orange Bowl appearance, a victory over the Huskies would likely mean two straight Top 25 finishes for the Deacs.

Look for UConn to take a quick and early lead on a special teams or defensive score, but fail to get into a groove offensively all game. Further, expect Wake to slowly warm up and then explode in the half, as the long layoff and Jim Grobe's flirtation with the Arkansas job a few weeks is bound to have knocked them off kilter a bit. Riley Skinner should be able to pick apart the Huskies' thin secondary.

Wake Forest 24, Connecticut 10

For more alarmingly accurate predictions, check in tomorrow for tonight's winning lotto numbers. I'm that good.

A Very Quick Emerald Bowl Preview

MARYLAND (6-6) vs. OREGON STATE (8-4) - Dec. 28, 2007, 8:30pm ET (ESPN)
Lost in all the commotion of Oregon State's mid-to-late season surge is that their six victories in their last seven contests were all against teams with .500 or worse records, except for the season finale at Oregon, against a flailing, Dennis Dixon-less Duck squad that still piled on the points against the Beavers. They were also blasted earlier in the year by Cincinnati and UCLA and were lifeless in a November clash with USC.

That's not to say that the Terps are world-beaters. 6-6 is 6-6 no matter how you slice it. Still, Maryland has been more competitive in their losses, and their wins against the likes of Boston College, Rutgers (on the road) and Georgia Tech are better than any win the Beavers have notched this year, save for their season opening win over Utah. The key matchup tonight will be Oregon State's stout defense (12th nationally) against the surging Terrapin offense (95 points in their final three regular season games against BC, FSU and NC State).

Maryland 27, Oregon State 25

A Very Quick Champs Sports Bowl Preview

BOSTON COLLEGE (10-3) vs. MICHIGAN STATE (7-5) - Dec. 28, 2007, 5pm ET (ESPN)
Simply put, this is a must-win game for both BC and the ACC. Despite rising to #2 in the polls entering November, the Eagles were largely considered a very good team that had fattened up on a soft non-conference slate. Subsequent losses to average Florida State and Maryland teams seemed to justify that perception, although the Eagles gained a huge measure of respect with a gut check win at Clemson in their penultimate game of the regular season, a win that clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game.

A respectable loss to Virgina Tech in said title game invariably sent BC hurtling down to fourth in the ACC bowl selection sweepstakes. Their reward for another ten-win season is a date with the Michigan State Spartans, who managed to finish 7th in a terribly weak Big 10 this year and are now without a half-dozen players due to those cumbersome academics. I've railed on the Big 10 quite a bit this year, so for the ACC to gain any sense of respect heading into the offseason, the Eagles must win this afternoon. That said, the Spartans' five defeats this season all came by a touchdown or less, so don't look for a runaway BC victory.

Boston College 31, Michigan State 21