Sunday, October 12, 2008

Down n' Dirty Blog Pollin'

The ACCFR ballot, post-week seven:
1 Texas 4
2 Alabama 2
3 Penn State 3
4 Oklahoma State 17
5 Oklahoma 4
6 Southern Cal 1
7 Texas Tech 3
8 Florida 3
9 Brigham Young 1
10 Missouri 8
11 Utah 1
12 Ohio State 3
13 Virginia Tech 1
14 North Carolina 8
15 Boise State 3
16 Georgia 3
17 Wake Forest 3
18 South Florida 1
19 Michigan State 7
20 LSU 17
21 Kansas 6
22 Ball State 3
23 Florida State 3
24 Pittsburgh 2
25 TCU 1
Dropped Out: Vanderbilt (#16), Georgia Tech (#17), Kentucky (#23), Wisconsin (#24)
Maybe Next Week: California, Minnesota, Connecticut, Oregon, Notre Dame, Boston College

This is my first week of strict "resume ranking". I will no longer rank teams based on who I think is simply better (i.e. I think Oklahoma might still be the best team out there, but they had their chance). My basic criteria is to take each team considered for my Top 25 and run them through this wringer:

1) Who have they beaten?
2) How did they beat them?
3) Where did they beat them?
4) When did they beat them?
-and then-
5) Who did they lose to?
6) How did they lose?
7) Where did they lose?
8) When did they lose?

Take 1 through 4, evaluate with 5 through 8, compare and contrast with other teams, and rank accordingly.

This takes a hell of a lot more time than just power-pollin', but since we're about halfway through the season, I figure that comparing overall resumes is the fairest way to go.

--Gotta love the first week of resume ranking; some teams who won yesterday drop (UGA, Ohio State, Kansas, Ga Tech), some teams go from one end of the poll to the other (LSU, Okie State), some idle squads jump into the poll (FSU, Pitt), and some teams with very impressive wins yesterday don't rise all that much (Penn State, UF).
--About the Bayou Bengals....they suffered the most this week and not just because of their brutal undressing at Florida; the Tigers haven't beaten anyone worth a crap, and they looked so-so in two of those wins (Auburn, Miss. State). All the hype surrounding LSU in '08 was based on last year's "national title" season; a season of inexplicable good fortune in which they lost twice, gave up 50 points at home to an unranked team in the last regular season contest and yet still found a way to play in the BCS title game in their own backyard. And let's not mention the legion of nutty 4th-down calls that somehow just worked throughout '07.
--In contrast, Oklahoma State rockets up the poll; beating current #10 on the road and averaging close to 50 points per game is certainly one of the five best resumes so far this season, no?
--Before you complain about USC's placement, remember that this is where I rank their season resume to date. Yes, they have a loss to an unranked team, but they also obliterated my current #12 and blasted another team I considered for this week's ballot (Oregon). Their remaining slate, however, does not offer much room for them to move up much higher unless the other teams surrounding them go on losing sprees.
--Vanderbilt, as predicted, was due for a fall...they just stumbled a week earlier than I thought. But they get a chance to move back in with their remaining schedule and if South Carolina (their only noteworthy victory) continues to improve.
--I think everything else is fairly self-explanatory if you look at each team's total performance thus far.
Comments and/or questions are most welcome.


Preston said...

I'm unhappy, naturally, that GT has dropped from your rankings and has not made it into the AP T25 yet, but I understand it. However, we had our only two decent QBs out yesterday, had a let down game, but still came away with the win. If we beat Clemson, I would imagine we'll jump into everyone's top 25. If not, THEN I'll be pretty upset, haha...

Marcus said...

10-7 to Gardner-Webb, and having to block a tying field goal at the end, is a huge ugly black mark on the resume.

I know that Booker is ill-suited to run that offense, but to have the G-W defensive line overrun the Tech OL was stunning.

But you're correct, Tech can play their way back into the poll - plenty of tough opponents ahead and the Jackets can fatten up the resume with victories.

Tomahawk Nation said...

If you're going to resume rank, jump in with both feet.

LSU should NOT be ranked, and they shouldn't be considered at this point. Wins over two horrible teams and a 30 point blowout? I know it's hard to let go of traditional power polling, but you'll feel smarter once you free yourself.

For that matter, BYU, Ball State, and USF should also go.

California & Minnesota should also be included.

Justify BYU's ranking over Boise or Utah. Heck, justify ranking them at all.

I'm glad you're on board with resume ranking, but much like how the spread offense is taking over college football, you have to do it right to make it work.

There's more, but LSU, USF, BYU, Ball State, and Kansas need serious thought.

Marcus said...

Whoa, easy there sport. You've got UF #5 and Ole Miss (at 3-3!) #23 on your ballot. I might have some debatable selections, but those are wacky.

You've got Vandy #15 and LSU out when LSU performed better against the two common opponents they share. I'd love nothing better than to drop LSU out altogether but the pickings get slim after about #15 or so on the ballot.

Where are Minnesota's good wins? NIU, FAU, Indiana, Montana State? Nope. Bowling Green and Illinois are decent victories but nothing amazing. Top 25 worthy? Not yet. But I did consider them.

I'm taking a second look at BYU. 59-0 over UCLA is just such a huge number, even if UCLA is meh. And my version of resume also takes into account how teams were beaten, and when.

But brother, as long as you've got Ole-frickin-Miss in your poll, you've got some fixin' up to do on your ballot as well. Played a tough schedule? Sure. But 3-3 against it is not one of the Top 25 resumes. Not a chance.