For the fourth consecutive time, and fifth overall since FSU began ACC play in 1992, the biennial (not biannual, apparently) Wolfpack-Seminole showdown in Raleigh will highlight ESPN's broadcast on a Thursday evening. And despite all the jitters among the Seminole faithful, the arrangement has been successful for the Noles, who have won three of the four previous Thursday-at-Carter-Finley meetings. Nonetheless, the best Thursday night throwdown between the two was the lone Pack victory, a 24-20 grinder in 2006 that had all sorts of subplots and effects, namely:
it was then-Wolfpack head coach Chuck Amato's (NCSU letterman '65-'69) last victory in that capacity as NCSU promptly went on a 7-game skid to end the season
yes, the Chuck Amato who was Florida State's linebackers coach prior to (1982-99) and following (2007-09) his stint as skipper in Raleigh
it was - debatably - when en-masse finger pointing shifted from Jeff Bowden to Bobby Bowden regarding the slip in the Seminole program; the Jeff experiment as Florida State's offensive coordinator was put out to pasture a month later
it was the beginning of FSU's second slide of the decade - from middle-lower end Top 25 program to perennial six-loss/unranked unit
Soooo.....lots of curious recent history here. Do I have a preview or prediction for tonight? No, I most certainly do not. A prediction is pointless since both teams have had 12 days to prepare, both teams are coming off subpar efforts, both teams have (thus far) performed better than expected, both teams are playing for the clear division lead, and both teams sport the two best quarterbacks in the league - recent struggles be damned.
Should be an interesting game though, if for no other reason than it's the first Florida State-NC State matchup sans any Chuck Amato involvement since 1964, a span of 23 games (1965-69, 1992-2009)
N.C. STATE (6-6) vs. RUTGERS (7-5) Monday, 12/29/08, 3pm ET - Legion Field, Birmingham, AL Series record: first meeting What may or may not happen: Both teams were red hot to end the season; Rutgers won their final six games capped off by a 63-14 murder of Louisville, while NC State won their final four contests highlighted by curbstompings of North Carolina and Miami in back-to-back weeks to close out the season. Witha four week layoff, it will be tough for one (if not both) teams to get their groove back. In that case go with the bowl-master Tom O'Brien, who's won his last six postseason matchups. N.C. State 30, Rutgers 23
Offense: Ugh. That was the collective grunt uttered by Pack fans after the punch-in-the-gut news that stud wideout Donald Bowens was recently lost for the season with a fractured back. That means that the four top receivers from last year's team will not be back for the '08 campaign, leaving this sector of the offense the thinnest and least experienced in the league (depending on how well TE Anthony Hill returns from missing '07 due to a blown ACL). The running game is a mystery as uber-talented backs Toney Baker and Andre Brown are still recovering from injuries sustained last season (sense a pattern here?), although junior Jamelle Eugene filled in admirably (667 yards, 5 TDs rushing in '07) and will probably be the starter in the opener. The huge offensive line is decent with several players having starting experience, although (aside from guard Curtis Crouch) there doesn't appear to be much all-ACC caliber talent in the bunch. And quarterback...it looks like another year with highly inconsistent senior Daniel Evans, who is capable of almost single-handedly winning games himself (see: BC and FSU '06, UVA '07), but also has the habit of turning the ball over in voluminous quantities at the worst times. Freshmen Russell Wilson and Mike Glennon will likely see time under center as well, although expect O'Brien to try and save one of them for the long-term future while the other gets battered about this season.
Defense: Another ugh. Five of the top six tacklers are gone, and projected starting FS Clem Johnson was just lost for the year due to...yes, injury. As for the line, the dropoff from the 2005 level of Mario Williams, Manny Lawson and John McCargo is staggering - but not unexpected. This year's DL has decent size and bits of starting experience here and there, but certainly no stars yet. The linebacking corps is a major question mark, as all three starters from last year's squad have gone to the private sector, and projected starting WLB Audie Cole is a converted QB. The secondary is the strong suit of this unit, even with the loss of Johnson to injury and the departure of stud safety DaJuan Morgan. All the starters have significant game experience and will anchor the defense for most of the year. Still, as a whole, the Wolfpack defense is very much a work in progress and is probably middle-of-the road at best in the ACC.
Special Teams: Ugh again. Punt and kickoff return specialist Darrell Blackman (56 combined returns last year) has departed, and now with the injury to Bowens (20 KO returns in '07), the return game is a complete mystery. The very underrated Steven Hauschka (perfect in PATs, 16 of 18 FGs in 2007) is also gone after just one season. The reliable if unspectacular Bradley Pierson is back for punting duties and he might very well be the offensive MVP early in the season. Coaching: Tom O'Brien probably did not envision this big of a rebuilding job when he departed Boston for Raleigh 20 months ago, nor did he likely figure on the bad luck (injury epidemic) that's befallen the program since his arrival. It appears that things will likely get worse before they get better and it helps that O'Brien has some reliable old standbys with him, chief among them being OC Dana Bible. They may appear boring to you and me, but let's not forget that they were responsible for bringing in the talent you saw at Boston College last year (Matt Ryan, Andre Callender, Ryan Purvis to name a few). State will prove easier to sell to recruits than Chestnut Hill if O'Brien gets the ship righted and then talk of competing for ACC titles can commence. But for now, in 2008, it's about staying out of the league basement and finding the right players for 2009 and beyond.
Odds & Ends: Last year's 37-0 defeat to Maryland in the season finale was the Pack's first shutout loss since a 14-0 setback to Baylor in 1995.....State ranked 116th nationally last year in turnover margin (-17); it was the third time in the last four seasons that they ranked below 110 in that category.....the Wolfpack went 3-0 vs. Coastal Division opponents in 2007, but 0-5 against their Atlantic Division rivals
Schedule Analysis: Aside from the week two meeting with William & Mary, this slate is completely devoid of any breathers, with the two bye weeks being relatively unhelpful (a shortened one before a Thursday-nighter with FSU, and the second one pre-Duke). This is the wrong year to open up with a toughie on the road, and the wrong year to face the conference favorite in week three - also on the road. The only bright spot is a four-game homestand in late September-early October. This schedule, combined with the ongoing rehab job in Raleigh, spells another losing season. If O'Brien can somehow get this team to six wins, ACC Coach of the Year honors should (but probably won't) follow. Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Virginia Tech are off the rotation on this year's slate. Projected Wins: William & Mary, Miami Projected Losses: @South Carolina, @Clemson, USF, Florida State, @Maryland, @Wake Forest Toss-Ups: East Carolina, Boston College, @Duke, @North Carolina PrimoWolfpack Blogs: State Fans Nation, Section Six
Offense: A unit that has been nothing short of a train wreck since Phillip Rivers' departure after the 2003 season undergoes yet another makeover for a fourth straight year. The core of this unit rests with NFL-caliber RBs Andre Brown and Toney Hall, who despite being saddled with a porous OL in 2006, combined for over 1400 yards and 10 TDs. That OL returns 5 pseudo-starters, but is perilously thin after that; nearly all the second-teamers did not play a down in 2006. QB duties are still up in the air, with last year's nine-game starter Daniel Evans most likely to get the nod. He's been pushed by freshman Justin Burke and Nebraska transfer Harrison Beck, however allow me to say that I'm not very enthusiastic about former Husker QBs who transfer to North Carolina schools. 2005 and 2006 sometime starting QB Marcus Stone has moved to TE, where he takes the place of the just-injured Anthony Hill.
Defense: Despite losing three first round draft picks in the spring of '06, the Wolfpack defense didn't drop off the face of the earth, but it did slip to 8th in the ACC (36th nationally). Six starters leave from last year's squad, but plenty of returnees saw playing time last season via constant substitutions and injuries. As of right now, it isn't clear whether the Wolfpack may switch to a 3-4 defense or stay with last season's 4-3 set, but either way, two starters are back on the DL and the LB corps has significant game experience. Shutdown corner Jimmy "Third" Sutton returns for the secondary. All in all, the Pack D should at least maintain last year's status, and more than likely will climb into the top half of the ACC.
Special teams: State breaks in a new kicker in Bradley Pierson, brought in the nation's 2nd best JUCO punter in Jeff Ruiz, while last year's top ACC return specialist, Darrell Blackman, is back. One bright spot for the Wolfpack in recent years is the holy terror they've been to opposing punters, rivalling Virginia Tech for Best Punt Blocking Program status. It'll be interesting to see whether Amato's departure and O'Brien's arrival have much affect in that regard.
Coaching: Out- Chuck Amato and The Red Shoe Diaries. After some initial success in his first four seasons, the nearly constant revolving door on his assistant coaching staff, the departure of all-everything QB Phillip Rivers, and the deplorable on-field lack of discipline finally got the best of The Chest. In- Boston College head coach Tom O'Brien, quite possibly the polar opposite of Amato in nearly every way. He brought over most of his Chestnut Hill staff, most notably OC and QB/WR coach Dana Bible. Two former head coaches in DC Mike Archer (LSU 1987-1990) and LB coach Andy McCollum (Middle Tennessee 1999-2005) are new additions for both O'Brien and State. O'Brien's approach is methodical, demanding, and strict, but he's a proven winner and he'll make NC State a perennial contender in the ACC....just not this year.
For What It's Worth: Amato's ACC record and highest league finish (25-31, 4th '01-'03); previous coach Mike O'Cain's ACC record and highest league finish (26-30, 2nd '94)....the 2006 Wolfpack ranked last in the ACC in turnover margin (112th nationally), and had the highest number of penalties per game (7.17) in the league (13th-most nationally)....Tom O'Brien's 76 total wins as a head coach since 1997 is one win short of Earle Edwards' school-best mark of 77 wins in Raleigh from 1954-1970....new OC Dana Bible tutored NFL QBs Tim Hasselbeck, Brian St. Pierre, and Quinton Porter, along with current All-ACC QB Matt Ryan
Schedule Analysis: A mixed bag....on the conference side, both Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech are helpfully absent, but all of the conference road games (@Boston College, @Florida State, @Miami, @Wake Forest) are most difficult. An out-of-conference matchup with Louisville is sandwiched by matchups with Clemson and FSU. The delicious but soon-to-be-grossly-overhyped Tom O'Brien return to Boston kicks off ACC play for State, in week two. Alas, no Thursday night Cardiac Pack classics are scheduled for this season. Projected Wins- UCF, Wofford, @East Carolina Projected Losses- Clemson, Louisville, @Florida State, @Miami, @Wake Forest Toss-Ups- @Boston College, Virginia, North Carolina, Maryland
Which now leads us to the newly available head coaching spot in Chestnut Hill. Since no official announcement has been made on O'Brien's departure, and with other head coaching spots open nationally, I'm not going to delve into the Eagles' opening just yet since many of the potential candidates could be snapped up by the time their official search gets underway. However, I will say that there is a great potential for disaster if BC doesn't hit a home run with this hire...unlike NC State, UNC and to a lesser extent Miami, whose programs are in relative shambles, the Eagles program is in it's best shape since the Doug Flutie days. The new Wolfpack, Tar Heel and Cane skippers could go 8-4 the next two years and would be lauded. That is certainly not the case for the next BC skipper. The Eagles are in a precarious spot; they have driven off - and make no mistake about it, O'Brien was driven out by the fan base - the winningest coach in school history, to a division rival no less. Going 8-4/9-3 every year, and winning 6 straight bowls wasn't good enough for BC, who clearly are at a disadvantage recruiting-wise and facility-wise from most of the other ACC programs. All of that is going to give every candidate for the job a bit of pause.
The Miami head coaching vacancy is apparently not generating the buzz Queen Shalala and Court Jester Dee were expecting. Steve Spurrier and Greg Schiano said no thanks in nearly record time. Texas Tech's Mike Leach, a curious possibility, interviewed in Coral Gables a few days ago. Hurricane DC Randy Shannon interviewed yesterday. Leach, while certainly a fall-back candidate, would not be an out-of-the ordinary hire for Miami (i.e. not "splashy" at the time). They plucked unheralded Jimmy Johnson from Oklahoma State in 1985, and no-name Dennis Erickson from Washington State in 1989. The Canes got a few rings out of those fellas. Still, Leach is a quirky dude, and perhaps a risky choice for Miami.
Last and probably least, the Florida State vacancy at offensive coordinator has been reliably linked at various times to the following: Norm Chow, Jimbo Fisher, Larry Fedora, Steve Logan (former ECU head coach and now an OC in NFL-Europe), Chris Hatcher (head coach at Div. II Valdosta State), George Henshaw (FSU OC from '79-'82, now with the New Orleans Saints), and Frank Cignetti (recently axed as UNC's OC, was much more successful as OC at Fresno State before). Insight from folks in the know say that Fisher is the guy if he can't land a head coaching gig somewhere, with Steve Logan climbing up the charts. Chow is considered an outside shot as he is clearly going after a fairly prominent head coaching job, while Hatcher and Cignetti are the fall-back guys if all of the other candidates decline.
While doing an admirable job in raising the profile and expectations for Wolfpack football, Chuck Amato never was quite able to deliver on the field for NC State: a 25-31 record in the ACC in his 7 seasons, never better than a 4th place finish, 3 straight defeats to UNC, setting offensive football back a few decades the past couple of years, and then the killer- a 7-game losing streak to close out the '06 season.
The 4-3 record against Florida State during his tenure would seem to be the brightest spot in his 7-year stay. So while the rest of the ACC may have loved to have Amato stick around, I imagine that folks in Tallahassee are quite pleased that The Chest will no longer be in Raleigh.
For additional and certainly more knowledgeable commentary on the situation, peruse the NC State blogs State Fans Nation and Section Six.
