Tiebreaker Tutorial

All this talk over the last few weeks about who's going win which division has given me a headache, but at the same time has caused me to investigate what tiebreakers are actually in place to solve the potential mess we may face next Sunday (and that mess would be five of the twelve league teams at 5-3 and tied atop their respective divisions; or to put it another way...nearly half of the league would be tied for a division crown).

That investigation began and ended with my discovery of The Official ACC Tiebreaker Rules. For those too lazy to click on the link, here's the gist:

A. Two-Team Tie

1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
2. Records of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall record (divisional). Conference record and proceeding though the division. Multiple ties within the division broken from first to last.
4. Overall record versus all common non-divisional opponents.
5. Combined record versus all non-divisional teams.
6. Record versus common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division.
7. The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the end of regular season games shall be the divisional representative in the ACC Championship Game.
8. The representative shall be chosen by a draw.

B. Three (or More) Team Tie
(Once tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker format is used)

1. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams.
2. Records of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional or conference) record, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last.
4. Overall record for non-divisional teams.
5. Combined record versus all common non-divisional teams.
6. Record versus common non-divisional with the best overall Conference (divisional and non-divisional record) and proceeding through the other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within the division.
7. The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the conclusion of regular season games shall be the divisional representative in the ACC Championship Game, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the ACC Championship Game.
8. The representative shall be chosen by a draw.

So let's get started.

ATLANTIC DIVISION
The Candidates: Florida State (5-3), Boston College (4-3), Maryland (4-3)

Scenario 1: Boston College defeats Maryland next Saturday, setting up a two-way tie between the Eagles and the Seminoles for the Atlantic Division crown.
Resolution 1: Boston College wins the Atlantic by virtue of the first two-team tiebreaker.

Scenario 2: Maryland defeats Boston College next Saturday, setting up a two-way tie between the Terps and the Seminoles for the Atlantic Division crown.
Resolution 2: Florida State wins the Atlantic by virtue of the first two-team tiebreaker.

Well that was easy.

COASTAL DIVISION
The Candidates: Georgia Tech (5-3), Miami (4-3), Virginia Tech (4-3)

Scenario 1: N.C. State defeats Miami and Virginia defeats Virginia Tech next Saturday, leaving Georgia Tech alone atop the Coastal.
Resolution 1: I think that would be rather obvious.

Scenario 2: Miami defeats N.C. State and Virginia defeats Virginia Tech next Saturday, setting up a two-way tie between the Yellow Jackets and Hurricanes for the Coastal Division crown.
Resolution 2: Georgia Tech wins the Coastal by virtue of the first two-team tiebreaker.

Scenario 3: N.C. State defeats Miami and Virginia Tech defeats Virginia next Saturday, setting up a two-way tie between the Yellow Jackets and Hokies for the Coastal Division crown.
Resolution 3: Virginia Tech wins the Coastal by virtue of the first-two team tiebreaker.

Scenario 4: Miami defeats N.C. State and Virginia Tech defeats Virginia, setting up a three way tie between the Yellow Jackets, Hurricanes and Hokies for the Coastal Division crown.
Resolution 4: The first three-team tiebreaker results in a stalemate; all three teams went 1-1 against the other two (Georgia Tech beat Miami, Miami beat Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech beat Georgia Tech). The second three-team tiebreaker eliminates Georgia Tech and Miami; the Jackets went 2-3 in the Coastal, the Canes posted a 3-2 Coastal record, while the Hokies went 4-1 in the division. Virginia Tech then wins the Coastal by virtue of the second three-team tiebreaker.

So there you have it. It's either Florida State/Boston College in the Atlantic and Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech in the Coastal. Most of you already knew that, but seeing how we got there always helps.

Atlantic Division Forecast

You've read the team previews (at least I hope you have because I sure as hell ain't repeating them here). You may have noticed that in those previews I projected some wins, some losses, and some toss-up games. In order for me to make a reasonable prediction for the divisions as a whole, I went ahead and loosely picked the toss-ups so I could come up with a projected overall record and conference record for each team.

First up to bat is the brutal Atlantic Division. And by brutal I mean that the two best teams in the league reside here and going further out than that, five of the top seven teams in the ACC are here. So yeah, brutal.

PREDICTED FINISH

1. Clemson (10-2 overall, 6-2 ACC)
I know, zero points for originality. But this is the most talented ACC roster since Florida State 2000. Unfortunately, Tommy Bowden as head coach will mean two regular season losses when about three dozen other coaches would run the table with this team. Nonetheless, Tiger faithful should starting searching for vacation packages to Tampa in early December.

2. Wake Forest (9-3 overall, 5-3 ACC)
The Thursday-nighter with Clemson will decide the division, and I've pegged the Tigers to take it. Wake will lose twice more in conference because they typically play to the level of their competition - that's their style, but it'll bite 'em.

3. Florida State (8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC)
It's a long slog back to the top, but the Noles are on their way. 3-5 in the ACC in '06, 4-4 in '07, 5-3 this year. They're on the right track, but they will have a gigantic whiskey-tango-foxtrot loss sometime this season as well.

4. Boston College (8-4 overall, 4-4 ACC)
This is where BC would've finished last year without the two Matt Ryan magic moments at Virginia Tech and Clemson. Matt Ryan is gone. So here they sit.

5. Maryland (7-5 overall, 4-4 ACC)
I had Maryland teetering on a 2nd place finish in the division until four words were uttered by Terp coaches last week: Jordan Steffy, starting quarterback. I understand that behind-the-scenes issues have a lot to do with these kinds of decisions, but that doesn't change the fact that on Saturday afternoons, Chris Turner is a better QB than Steffy. Much better. As in two games in overall record better.

6. N.C. State (4-8 overall, 2-6 ACC)
The decision to name Russell Wilson as starting quarterback makes the Wolfpack worse at the beginning of the year but probably better as the season goes along. Daniel Evans would have gotten the Pack this same record, but in a different way and State would then be less stable heading into 2009. But let's not sugarcoat it - the Pack will look pretty damn awful for the first few games, so I'd advise you not to watch.

The Coastal Division forecast will be up shortly. In the meantime, grab a beer and fire away at these picks.

Atlantic Division Outlook

Now that the team previews are out of the way, it's time to take a gander at how the division races should play out. You may have noticed that in my team previews I projected some wins, some losses, and some toss-up games. In order for me to make a reasonable prediction for the divisions as a whole, I went ahead and loosely picked the toss-ups so that I could come up with a predicted overall record and conference record for each team.

Today's focus is on the chaotic Atlantic Division. Read it and weep....

PREDICTED FINISH

1. Florida State (9-3 overall, 6-2 ACC)
When you toss out one of the worst offensive coaching staffs in all of college football and replace them with some of the best offensive minds in the game, you get better. Much better. Sure, there'll be some kinks to iron out along the way, and I'm still not sold on either Drew Weatherford or Xavier Lee, but an improved offensive line should equate to a more prominent rushing attack and relieve some of the pressure on the QBs. The defense should be yet another ferocious Mickey Andrews beast.

t2. Clemson (8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC)
This club will not be as good as last year's edition, while the division as a whole will be tougher than it was in 2006. So naturally, I pick the Tigers to have the exact same record as last season. Easy enough.

t2. Wake Forest (8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC)
Offensively, they'll be significantly better than last year's attack; defensively, not so much. The slip on defense will result in a smaller turnover margin, which will swing a few games into the loss column this season. Nonetheless, the schedule is favorable and that'll keep the Deacons above .500 in the league.

4. Maryland (6-6 overall, 4-4 ACC)
I've seen the Terps picked anywhere from first to last in the division while perusing the glut of preseason previews out there on the internets, and the more I study them and look at last season, I lean toward the latter. From a purely statistical standpoint, it's incomprehensible that Maryland won nine games last year. That kind of inexplicable good fortune does not tend to repeat itself, and on paper, these Terps are not quite as good as the 2006 squad.

5. Boston College (7-5 overall, 3-5 ACC)
Of all the teams, this projection has the least to do with the existing talent and has almost everything to do with the coaching change and the schedule. Unlike the changes at FSU and (paradoxically) NC State - which are universally accepted as being for the better for those programs - the same cannot be said for the new regime at BC, at least not yet. On top of that, they have a tricky start to the season and finish with a brutal five-game stretch. Thus, I am a tad queasy about the Eagles this fall.

6. N.C. State (5-7 overall, 2-6 ACC)
Get 'em while they're down, because starting in 2008, the Wolfpack should be headed straight toward the top of the division. The talent inherited by Tom O'Brien is a bit of a mismatch for his coaching style, but the refreshing stability and strict focus on the basics he brings is enough to improve upon last year's fiasco by a few games. Unfortunately, it won't be enough to climb out of the division cellar.

I must admit that I'm not entirely comfortable with the projections from second-to-fifth place, although I'm reasonably certain that the Seminoles will win the division while the Wolfpack will bring up the rear. Ask me again next week and I may have Clemson fifth and Boston College second. Such is life in the wild and woolly Atlantic.