Tiebreaker Tutorial

All this talk over the last few weeks about who's going win which division has given me a headache, but at the same time has caused me to investigate what tiebreakers are actually in place to solve the potential mess we may face next Sunday (and that mess would be five of the twelve league teams at 5-3 and tied atop their respective divisions; or to put it another way...nearly half of the league would be tied for a division crown).

That investigation began and ended with my discovery of The Official ACC Tiebreaker Rules. For those too lazy to click on the link, here's the gist:

A. Two-Team Tie

1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
2. Records of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall record (divisional). Conference record and proceeding though the division. Multiple ties within the division broken from first to last.
4. Overall record versus all common non-divisional opponents.
5. Combined record versus all non-divisional teams.
6. Record versus common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division.
7. The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the end of regular season games shall be the divisional representative in the ACC Championship Game.
8. The representative shall be chosen by a draw.

B. Three (or More) Team Tie
(Once tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker format is used)

1. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams.
2. Records of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional or conference) record, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last.
4. Overall record for non-divisional teams.
5. Combined record versus all common non-divisional teams.
6. Record versus common non-divisional with the best overall Conference (divisional and non-divisional record) and proceeding through the other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within the division.
7. The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the conclusion of regular season games shall be the divisional representative in the ACC Championship Game, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the ACC Championship Game.
8. The representative shall be chosen by a draw.

So let's get started.

ATLANTIC DIVISION
The Candidates: Florida State (5-3), Boston College (4-3), Maryland (4-3)

Scenario 1: Boston College defeats Maryland next Saturday, setting up a two-way tie between the Eagles and the Seminoles for the Atlantic Division crown.
Resolution 1: Boston College wins the Atlantic by virtue of the first two-team tiebreaker.

Scenario 2: Maryland defeats Boston College next Saturday, setting up a two-way tie between the Terps and the Seminoles for the Atlantic Division crown.
Resolution 2: Florida State wins the Atlantic by virtue of the first two-team tiebreaker.

Well that was easy.

COASTAL DIVISION
The Candidates: Georgia Tech (5-3), Miami (4-3), Virginia Tech (4-3)

Scenario 1: N.C. State defeats Miami and Virginia defeats Virginia Tech next Saturday, leaving Georgia Tech alone atop the Coastal.
Resolution 1: I think that would be rather obvious.

Scenario 2: Miami defeats N.C. State and Virginia defeats Virginia Tech next Saturday, setting up a two-way tie between the Yellow Jackets and Hurricanes for the Coastal Division crown.
Resolution 2: Georgia Tech wins the Coastal by virtue of the first two-team tiebreaker.

Scenario 3: N.C. State defeats Miami and Virginia Tech defeats Virginia next Saturday, setting up a two-way tie between the Yellow Jackets and Hokies for the Coastal Division crown.
Resolution 3: Virginia Tech wins the Coastal by virtue of the first-two team tiebreaker.

Scenario 4: Miami defeats N.C. State and Virginia Tech defeats Virginia, setting up a three way tie between the Yellow Jackets, Hurricanes and Hokies for the Coastal Division crown.
Resolution 4: The first three-team tiebreaker results in a stalemate; all three teams went 1-1 against the other two (Georgia Tech beat Miami, Miami beat Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech beat Georgia Tech). The second three-team tiebreaker eliminates Georgia Tech and Miami; the Jackets went 2-3 in the Coastal, the Canes posted a 3-2 Coastal record, while the Hokies went 4-1 in the division. Virginia Tech then wins the Coastal by virtue of the second three-team tiebreaker.

So there you have it. It's either Florida State/Boston College in the Atlantic and Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech in the Coastal. Most of you already knew that, but seeing how we got there always helps.

Coastal Division Forecast

As mentioned in my Atlantic Division Forecast, you may have noticed that in the team previews I compiled - at great personal expense and sacrifice - I projected some wins, some losses, and some toss-up games for each team. In order for me to make a reasonable prediction for the divisions as a whole, I went ahead and loosely picked the toss-ups so I could come up with a predicted overall record and conference record for each team.

I turn my attention now to the Coastal Division. OK then, I now want to divert my attention elsewhere. Let's face it, the Coastal is in rough shape in 2008. The Hokies, Hoos and Yellow Jackets should be down from where they were last year and they happen to be the squads that finished in the top three in the division in 2007. The Tar Heels, Hurricanes and Blue Devils should be better this year, but improving from a collective record of 10-26 doesn't exactly mean setting the world ablaze. Let's just get to it....

PREDICTED FINISH

1. North Carolina (9-3 overall, 6-2 ACC)
I'm not exactly comfortable with what I just wrote above, but someone has to win this division and on paper the Heels are a surprisingly clear choice. Click on their team preview, read it and then look at the schedule - I bet you can see a division title in the making as well. But it really comes down to the Sept. 20 meeting with the Hokies in Chapel Hill. I'm picking the Heels. But if I'm wrong, then scrap this pick because there's no other way for them to get to Tampa without beating Virginia Tech straight up.

2. Virginia Tech (8-4 overall, 6-2 ACC)
I like Frank Beamer and he's surprised us before, but another ACC title this year just ain't in the cards given what he has to work with. The Hokies could still win the division if they knock off the Tar Heels on the road, but they decided to put everything on Sean Glennon's shoulders this year and that means they're really looking at 2009 and beyond.

3. Miami (6-6 overall, 4-4 ACC)
Now do you see what I mean when I say the Coastal is in rough shape? A team with a non-winning record overall and in the conference is slated to finish third in the division. You're welcome to whatever league(s) get(s) the bowl slots that the ACC won't be able to fill.

4. Georgia Tech (5-7 overall, 2-6 ACC)
Paul Johnson finished 2-10 in his first year at Navy. He went 43-19 the rest of the way at Annapolis. This season will end the Jackets' long bowl appearance and winnning season streaks, but it will also be a building block to get them out of the 7-5 purgatory they've been in for so long.

5. Virginia (4-8 overall, 2-6 ACC)
I'm a little uneasy at placing the Cavaliers this low, but it doesn't really matter since the difference between them and Miami is the fact that I picked the Canes to get revenge for last year's Orange Bowl massacre. If I'm wrong, they both finish 5-7, 3-5 so that still means no bowl for the Hoos.

6. Duke (4-8 overall, 1-7 ACC)
A 400% increase in overall wins would warrant street parties at about 115 other 1-A programs, but at Duke it just means they win four times this year. That's still progress and look for Cutcliffe and Co. to be a landmine game for many programs from here on out.

ACC Championship Game and Bowl Picks should be posted shortly. I need a drink after reviewing what I just wrote....am I really picking 66% of this division to finish at .500 or below? I suppose I am.

Coastal Division Outlook

Today we turn our attention toward the Coastal Division and how things should play out this fall. The same rules apply as with my Atlantic outlook...I'll sack-up and pick those games I listed as "toss ups" in the team previews in order to come up with a reasonable prediction for the division. And away we go...

PREDICTED FINISH

1. Georgia Tech (10-2 overall, 7-1 ACC)
I agree, it's a bit perplexing to see the Jackets up here with that kind of a record, especially with the loss of Calvin Johnson. But, after close inspection of the returning talent and the schedule, the only thing actually holding me back from picking the Ramblin' Wreck to run the table can be summed up in one word: Chan. He bears as much responsibility as Reggie Ball and Patrick Nix for the eyesore that has been the Jacket offense lo' these many years. Nonetheless, the defense is a monster, the offensive line is loaded, Tashard Choice is back at RB, Ball and Nix are long gone, and QB Taylor Bennett is one talented and salty som'bitch. I really wanted to project the Jackets at 11-1 overall, but until The Chanster actually beats Georgia for the first time, that's a game I just can't call for Tech.

2. Virginia Tech (9-3 overall, 6-2 ACC)
Overall, this team is just as good as last year's edition, the only difference being that the 2006 Hokie squad didn't have LSU on the schedule. On the plus side, Virginia Tech will finally get that elusive win over Florida State (to date, Frank Beamer is 0-7 vs. Bobby Bowden). As I stated in their team preview, they will ride as far as Sean Glennon can take them, and unfortunately he doesn't have the horsepower to go all the way to Jacksonville this fall.

3. Miami (8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC)
I'm not sold just yet on uber-disciplinarian Randy Shannon and his coaching staff, but a fairly manageable conference slate (the first tough ACC road game isn't until late October, @FSU) will likely have the Canes bowl-eligible entering November. The defense will be typically fierce, but the QB situation may be in flux all year.

4. Virginia (7-5 overall, 3-5 ACC)
A killer defense and a patchwork offense will make the Cavaliers a hit-or-miss team all season. They could feasibly lose to Duke, while they could also knock off either of the Techs. The schedule plays out in their favor and they'll be back in the bowl picture when all is said and done. The Chessmaster lives to see another season.

5. North Carolina (4-8 overall, 2-6 ACC)
Two wins should be assured: the opener with James Madison and the home finale with Duke. The Heels will likely be underdogs in every game in between, but Butch Davis and Co. are good enough to steal a couple of games in WTF? fashion. Anything more than four wins this year should be cause for parades and general pandemonium in Chapel Hill.

6. Duke (2-10 overall, 0-8 ACC)
Memo to Ted Roof: Get. The. Hell. Out. Now. You're a decent coach in an impossible situation. You're decent enough to be successful at a place like East Carolina (just down the road from you), Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee, etc., but you ain't decent enough to take Duke out of the ACC cellar. The Blue Devil job is a hopeless case for a non-"name" coach given the fan and administration apathy. This year will just prove that even more.

I'm much more comfortable with these projections than with my picks in the Atlantic Division. Other than the two Techs switching spots at 1 and 2, I'll be quite bumfuzzled if things don't pan out the way I've outlined above.