The Official Preseason Blog Poll Ballot

If you read this post, then you've already seen my thoroughly analyzed, yet seemingly dart-board style preseason poll. No changes were made to my tentative ballot, even though I'm still a bit uncomfortable by some glaring omissions (Boston College, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, Boise State, Texas A&M), and a little queasy about some unconventionally high placements (Georgia Tech, Florida State, Hawaii). Nonetheless, I present you with the official ACCFR preseason Blog Poll ballot...

1	Southern Cal
2	Texas
3	LSU
4	West Virginia
5	Michigan
6	Wisconsin
7	Oklahoma
8	Florida
9	Louisville
10	Georgia Tech
11	Virginia Tech
12	California
13	Ohio State
14	Florida State
15	Hawaii
16	Oregon
17	Arkansas
18	Rutgers
19	Nebraska
20	Missouri
21	TCU
22	Penn State
23	South Carolina
24	UCLA
25	Wake Forest

AP Top 25

So yesterday the preseason AP poll was released, and like the coaches' poll, it featured just two ACC teams in the rankings...Virginia Tech at #9 (same ranking as the coaches' poll) and Florida State at #19 (two spots higher than the coaches' ranking).

Georgia Tech, Boston College, Miami, and Wake Forest were among the highest vote-getters in the "also receiving votes" category. Curiously, Clemson was way down the the charts, receiving just 6 media votes, one less than....Virginia? N.C. State surprisingly got a vote.

Similar to the coaches' poll, I find it difficult to argue with the tepid reception the ACC is garnering this preseason. That makes early season matchups like Georgia Tech-Notre Dame, Miami-Oklahoma, Miami-Texas A&M, and Wake Forest-Nebraska critically important in getting the ACC's reputation off the canvas.

Saturday News & Notes

--UNC head coach Butch Davis named freshman QB TJ Yates as the tentative starter for next month's opener with James Madison, thereby squashing my not-so-brilliant assumption last week regarding the QB battle.

--Clemson RB Ray Ray McElrathbey is out for the season with a torn ACL.

--The Seminoles' leader in rushing TDs in 2006, Joe Surratt, looks to be gone for the season with a fractured right fibula. Big Joe had sunk to third on the depth chart earlier in the spring before getting back in Jimbo Fisher's good graces in the last few weeks.

--One of the big concerns I have about Boston College this season continues to be a problem as opening weekend approaches.

--Duke LB Michael Tauiliili has been reinstated, just two weeks after his arrest for DWI, assault and other assorted misbehavior. The Devils' leading tackler the last two years has been suspended for the season opener with Connecticut.

--Tony Barnhart, a/k/a "Mr. College Football" (a foisted upon, or self-proclaimed moniker?), says the ACC is the 4th best conference this year. Sounds about right to me.

--Sports Illustrated and Rivals have unveiled their ACC previews, and they don't quite see things playing out the way I do.

The Return of the Blog Poll

The Blog Poll rears it's ugly head again on Aug. 22. For the second straight year, 'tis a great honor for me to serve my fellow bloggers and college football junkies as a mere cog in this endeavor.

Below is my tentative preseason Blog Poll ballot. I won't cast the real ballot until Sunday evening (Aug. 19), so I am quite open to persuasion here...

1	Southern Cal
2	Texas
3	LSU
4	West Virginia
5	Michigan
6	Wisconsin
7	Oklahoma
8	Florida
9	Louisville
10	Georgia Tech
11	Virginia Tech
12	California
13	Ohio State
14	Florida State
15	Hawaii
16	Oregon
17	Arkansas
18	Rutgers
19	Nebraska
20	Missouri
21	TCU
22	Penn State
23	South Carolina
24	UCLA
25	Wake Forest

Initial thoughts....

--Zero points for originality regarding my #1 pick.

--I really like those Longhorns, and it's just too perfect and storybook for their QB to have the name of Colt McCoy.

--Wisconsin is the ACCFR Official Darkhorse National Title Contender. OK, so they went 12-1 last year (not exactly "darkhorse" material), but nobody's talking about them this summer.

--Aside from Ramblin' Racket, I trust that no one else will have the Jackets anywhere near the Top 10. Shoot, I'm betting that half the pollsters won't have Georgia Tech in their Top 25. Fools.

--Florida State may be too high. Sure, being a Seminole alum, I'll likely always be a bit biased, but I put them at #14 by default. I couldn't think of another team that should be better.

--Hawaii is probably too high, but they'll have one-loss at most and that offense should be holy-frickin-poi incredible.

--I could see Arkansas going anywhere from 10-2 to 4-8. The hillbilly upheaval in Fayetteville this offseason has been almost Shakespearean, but Darren McFadden alone should be good enough for bowl eligibility.

--Rutgers, Nebraska, Missouri, Penn State...meh. 8-4, all of you.

--Wake Forest is every bit a Top 25 program this year. Just watch.

Coastal Division Outlook

Today we turn our attention toward the Coastal Division and how things should play out this fall. The same rules apply as with my Atlantic outlook...I'll sack-up and pick those games I listed as "toss ups" in the team previews in order to come up with a reasonable prediction for the division. And away we go...

PREDICTED FINISH

1. Georgia Tech (10-2 overall, 7-1 ACC)
I agree, it's a bit perplexing to see the Jackets up here with that kind of a record, especially with the loss of Calvin Johnson. But, after close inspection of the returning talent and the schedule, the only thing actually holding me back from picking the Ramblin' Wreck to run the table can be summed up in one word: Chan. He bears as much responsibility as Reggie Ball and Patrick Nix for the eyesore that has been the Jacket offense lo' these many years. Nonetheless, the defense is a monster, the offensive line is loaded, Tashard Choice is back at RB, Ball and Nix are long gone, and QB Taylor Bennett is one talented and salty som'bitch. I really wanted to project the Jackets at 11-1 overall, but until The Chanster actually beats Georgia for the first time, that's a game I just can't call for Tech.

2. Virginia Tech (9-3 overall, 6-2 ACC)
Overall, this team is just as good as last year's edition, the only difference being that the 2006 Hokie squad didn't have LSU on the schedule. On the plus side, Virginia Tech will finally get that elusive win over Florida State (to date, Frank Beamer is 0-7 vs. Bobby Bowden). As I stated in their team preview, they will ride as far as Sean Glennon can take them, and unfortunately he doesn't have the horsepower to go all the way to Jacksonville this fall.

3. Miami (8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC)
I'm not sold just yet on uber-disciplinarian Randy Shannon and his coaching staff, but a fairly manageable conference slate (the first tough ACC road game isn't until late October, @FSU) will likely have the Canes bowl-eligible entering November. The defense will be typically fierce, but the QB situation may be in flux all year.

4. Virginia (7-5 overall, 3-5 ACC)
A killer defense and a patchwork offense will make the Cavaliers a hit-or-miss team all season. They could feasibly lose to Duke, while they could also knock off either of the Techs. The schedule plays out in their favor and they'll be back in the bowl picture when all is said and done. The Chessmaster lives to see another season.

5. North Carolina (4-8 overall, 2-6 ACC)
Two wins should be assured: the opener with James Madison and the home finale with Duke. The Heels will likely be underdogs in every game in between, but Butch Davis and Co. are good enough to steal a couple of games in WTF? fashion. Anything more than four wins this year should be cause for parades and general pandemonium in Chapel Hill.

6. Duke (2-10 overall, 0-8 ACC)
Memo to Ted Roof: Get. The. Hell. Out. Now. You're a decent coach in an impossible situation. You're decent enough to be successful at a place like East Carolina (just down the road from you), Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee, etc., but you ain't decent enough to take Duke out of the ACC cellar. The Blue Devil job is a hopeless case for a non-"name" coach given the fan and administration apathy. This year will just prove that even more.

I'm much more comfortable with these projections than with my picks in the Atlantic Division. Other than the two Techs switching spots at 1 and 2, I'll be quite bumfuzzled if things don't pan out the way I've outlined above.

Atlantic Division Outlook

Now that the team previews are out of the way, it's time to take a gander at how the division races should play out. You may have noticed that in my team previews I projected some wins, some losses, and some toss-up games. In order for me to make a reasonable prediction for the divisions as a whole, I went ahead and loosely picked the toss-ups so that I could come up with a predicted overall record and conference record for each team.

Today's focus is on the chaotic Atlantic Division. Read it and weep....

PREDICTED FINISH

1. Florida State (9-3 overall, 6-2 ACC)
When you toss out one of the worst offensive coaching staffs in all of college football and replace them with some of the best offensive minds in the game, you get better. Much better. Sure, there'll be some kinks to iron out along the way, and I'm still not sold on either Drew Weatherford or Xavier Lee, but an improved offensive line should equate to a more prominent rushing attack and relieve some of the pressure on the QBs. The defense should be yet another ferocious Mickey Andrews beast.

t2. Clemson (8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC)
This club will not be as good as last year's edition, while the division as a whole will be tougher than it was in 2006. So naturally, I pick the Tigers to have the exact same record as last season. Easy enough.

t2. Wake Forest (8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC)
Offensively, they'll be significantly better than last year's attack; defensively, not so much. The slip on defense will result in a smaller turnover margin, which will swing a few games into the loss column this season. Nonetheless, the schedule is favorable and that'll keep the Deacons above .500 in the league.

4. Maryland (6-6 overall, 4-4 ACC)
I've seen the Terps picked anywhere from first to last in the division while perusing the glut of preseason previews out there on the internets, and the more I study them and look at last season, I lean toward the latter. From a purely statistical standpoint, it's incomprehensible that Maryland won nine games last year. That kind of inexplicable good fortune does not tend to repeat itself, and on paper, these Terps are not quite as good as the 2006 squad.

5. Boston College (7-5 overall, 3-5 ACC)
Of all the teams, this projection has the least to do with the existing talent and has almost everything to do with the coaching change and the schedule. Unlike the changes at FSU and (paradoxically) NC State - which are universally accepted as being for the better for those programs - the same cannot be said for the new regime at BC, at least not yet. On top of that, they have a tricky start to the season and finish with a brutal five-game stretch. Thus, I am a tad queasy about the Eagles this fall.

6. N.C. State (5-7 overall, 2-6 ACC)
Get 'em while they're down, because starting in 2008, the Wolfpack should be headed straight toward the top of the division. The talent inherited by Tom O'Brien is a bit of a mismatch for his coaching style, but the refreshing stability and strict focus on the basics he brings is enough to improve upon last year's fiasco by a few games. Unfortunately, it won't be enough to climb out of the division cellar.

I must admit that I'm not entirely comfortable with the projections from second-to-fifth place, although I'm reasonably certain that the Seminoles will win the division while the Wolfpack will bring up the rear. Ask me again next week and I may have Clemson fifth and Boston College second. Such is life in the wild and woolly Atlantic.