Monday, October 1, 2007

Out of Conference Report - Week 5

Updated out-of-conference records for the season, post seismic-shift weekend ...

Conf.RecordPct.
SEC25-4.862
Big 1028-7.800
Pac 1020-6.769
Big 1236-11.766
Big East24-8.750
ACC23-11.676
The ACC still sits in last place. On the surface, not good...but there's more to the story.

ON THE ROAD
The ACC still has the second highest percentage of non-conference games in unfriendly environments...

ConferenceRoad Games/OOC GamesPct.
Big East13/32.406
ACC12/34.353
Big 1215/47.319
Pac 108/26.308
Big 109/35.257
SEC5/29.172
Chicken-or-egg....does the SEC get gaudy non-conference records because they never go on the road, or do their gaudy non-conference records give them the gravitas to schedule how they please? Discuss.

THE COMPETITION
Of all their non-conference games, 41% of the ACC's matchups so far have been against power-league competition, tops among the BCS conferences. See below:

ConferenceBCS Foes/OOC GamesPct.
ACC14/34.412
Big East12/32.406
Big 1013/35.371
Pac 108/26.308
SEC8/29.276
Big 1211/47.234
And each conference's record against other power-league competition:

Conf.RecordPct.
Big 109-4.692
Pac 105-3.625
ACC7-7.500
SEC4-4.500
Big East6-7.462
Big 125-6.455
Before we get all googly-eyed at the Big 10's record, it must be noted that 6 of the 9 wins have come against Notre Dame and Syracuse, and two of the four losses are to Iowa State and Duke. The ACC's record is impressive in the quality of opponent in many of the wins (Rutgers, Alabama, Colorado, Texas A&M), as well as most of the losses (LSU, Oklahoma, USF, West Virginia, Nebraska).

THE 1-AA (OR "FCS" IF YOU WANT TO BE ALL TECHNICAL) FACTOR
The percentage of non-conference games against 1-AA competition...

Conference1-AA Foes/OOC GamesPct.
SEC6/29.207
ACC7/34.206
Big 10 7/35.200
Big East6/32.180
Big 128/47.170
Pac 102/26.008
Bravo to the Pac 10. That is all.

THOUGHTS & CONCLUSION
Given everything outlined above, it's evident to me that the ACC made a dramatic move this weekend in restoring lost credibility. So much so that they've moved into a 3rd-place tie in my rankings of the BCS conferences. These rankings are heavily based on the above criteria, but I also use some common sense. The Big East suffers from the fact that entering October, their lone national title contender is USF (sorry Cincy). Ditto for the ACC with Boston College. The Big 12 suffers the most from having no national title contenders at all (sorry Mizzou).

1. Pac 10
2. SEC
3. (tie) Big 10 & ACC
5. Big East
6. Big 12

The Pac 10 is far and away the best, with the SEC somewhat comfortably in second. The gap between three and six is tiny and placements can shift with just a game or two.

1 comment:

Marcus said...

An alert reader just pointed out that my percentage for the Big East under "The Competition" was a bit off...12 into 32 = .375, not .406. Doesn't change their placement in the category, however.